Fantasy Spins: Playoff Picks & Predictions
By Matthew Brady, Special to Hockeyinformer.com

4.12.04

If you’re reading this article looking for a sure fire way to win your hockey pool, I’m afraid you’ve come to the wrong place. There are no sure things this year, unless you’re good friends with Jojo the psychic.

As I mentioned in last week’s article, this is the tightest playoff race in years. Of all the first round series being played in 2004, only Tampa Bay and Detroit are comfortable favorites. The rest should be very even.

Despite the close matches however, I am here to put my head on the block and offer up my predictions, series by series, on who will emerge victorious from the opening round. Once we have that out of the way, I’ll throw out my top twenty picks and top goalie.

Eastern Conference:

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders
Of all the series in the Eastern Conference, I think this one is the easiest to predict. Tampa Bay’s lightning like-offense and superior goaltending should be enough to put the Isles away early. If that happens, watch for Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Brad Richards all to be on the scoring leader board by the end of the second round.
Prediction: Tampa in five.
Reason: The Lightning’s electrifying offense
Players to watch: St. Louis, Lecavalier, Alexei Yashin, Richards, Cory Stillman

Philadelphia Flyers vs. New Jersey Devils
This will be a knock down drag out battle between two defensive specialists. Philadelphia has some good scoring depth and should give the defending champions a great first round fight. As good as Philly is however, I have to go with the experience of the New Jersey Devils. While they may be missing a vital cog in Scott Stevens, they have a better offense than they’ve had in years past. Scott Gomez, Patrick Elias and Brian Gionta really stepped it up coming down the stretch, as the EGG line put up some fantastic points.

The Devils have a huge edge in goaltending with Martin Brodeur in between the pipes. Combine that with Philly’s lack of recent playoff success and the choice seems a little easier to make. It will be a close series, but NJ should have enough steam to come out on top.
Prediction: New Jersey in six
Reason: Martin Brodeur
Players to watch: Elias, Gomez, Mark Recchi, Brodeur, Jeremy Roenick

Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins
No matter where these two teams finish in the standings, every time they play it seems to be a close game. While that certainly wasn’t the case the other night when the Bruins spanked the Habs in Boston, I predict that this series will go at least six games.
The Bruins come into the series with a seemingly injured Joe Thornton. How he holds up could have a dramatic impact on the outcome of this matchup. The Bruins have a great power play quarterback in Sergei Gonchar and he’ll bring a spark that has been missing from the blueline since Ray Bourque took off for Colorado. Unfortunately, the Bruins meet their nemesis once again in the first round. Memories of the Habs’ first round victory from a couple of years ago still linger in the minds of Thornton and company.

As for the Canadiens, they come into this series without much playoff experience. Jose Theodore will be asked to shut the door once again and the Canadiens will be relying on him heavily to get them through the opening round. Additionally, Michael Ryder and Mike Ribeiro will have to carry the offense. While it is a lot to be asking the youngsters to shoulder the load, they along with Saku Koivu, must score for the Habs to get by Boston. The real wildcard in the series could be Alexei Kovalev. If the enigmatic Russian can somehow return to form, the Habs will walk away with the series. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that it will be happening any time soon.

The series really comes down to Theodore. If he can hold up, the Habs should be able to beat the Bruins. I don’t see any reason why he won’t. Moreover, I just can’t bring myself to pick Boston over Montreal any year. Call it tradition.

Prediction: Montreal in six.
Reason: Montreal always beats Boston…
Players to watch: Thornton, Theodore, Gonchar, Koivu, Ribeiro

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
This is really a matchup of toughness vs. speed. The rough and tumble Leafs have had the speedy Senators’ playoff number for years. This will be the most physical of any series in the opening round. Watch for the Leafs to pound on Ottawa scorers with relentless forechecking and roughhouse tactics. However, their Achilles heel may be the team’s lack of discipline. Too many trips to the penalty box will kill any hope of beating the Sens.

Both teams have goalies with health issues coming into this meeting. Patrick Lalime’s health is particularly worrisome, as it was doubtful he would even be ready for this series. If the health of either starter should falter, watch the other team to capitalize. The Leafs had better hope Ed Belfour stays healthy, I’d take Martin Prusek over Trevor Kidd as my backup any day.

This one is too close to call. Maybe I should just say: Toronowa

Prediction: Toronto in seven
Reason: I had to pick somebody. Lalime’s suspected health problems seem reason enough.
Players to watch: Belfour, Marian Hossa, Lalime, Mats Sundin

Western Conference:

Detroit Red Wings vs. Nashville Predators
It seems like only last year that the Red Wings choked their way out of the first round. Don’t expect it to happen again. Robert Lang, Pavel Datsyuk, Brett Hull… Even without a proven goalie, the Wings’ offense is just too high octane for the Preds to handle.
Prediction: Detroit in Five
Reason: Powerhouse Wings will want to atone for last year’s debacle.
Players to watch: Hull, Lang, Steve Sullivan, Steve Yzerman

Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks
Last week I portrayed the Canucks as also-rans. At the time it appeared as though they would be facing the Colorado Avalanche in the first round. Things have certainly changed; the Calgary Flames are a much easier opponent for the Canucks to go after.

Vancouver will need some big time offense from Markus Naslund if they are to go anywhere. He hasn’t been the same player since his concussion and the subsequent suspension of teammate Todd Bertuzzi.

As for the Flames; dynamic duo Jarome Iginla and Craig Conroy will be under the gun to produce. Moreover, Calgary will need to get the same stellar goaltending it has enjoyed all year from Miika Kiprusoff. If he can play anywhere close to the way he has in the regular season, the Flames will walk out winners.
Prediction: Calgary in seven
Reason: Kiprusoff and Iginla should be enough to win. Loss of Bertuzzi hurts Canucks.
Players to watch: Iginla, Naslund, Kiprusoff, Conroy, Ed Jovanovski

St. Louis Blues vs. San Jose Sharks
Critics of the St. Louis Blues are quick to point out the prolonged slump endured by goaltender Chris Osgood. What they fail to mention is that he was outstanding until mid-December when his slump was triggered by an ankle injury. From that point on he was absolutely horrific until a late season resurgence saved his (and the Blues’) season. Osgood looked to be back in top form in the closing weeks and he should be solid for this series.

His opponent, Evgeni Nabokov had almost the opposite season. Nabokov struggled early on, to the point that many fantasy owners started to drop him from their rosters. When January rolled around however, Nabby suddenly became the hottest goalie in the league before cooling down in the final weeks of the season. Combined, both netminders had the greatest season ever, or the worst, depending on how you look at it.

Goaltending aside, St. Louis seems to have the edge in scoring. Boasting the talented trio of Keith Tkachuk, Doug Weight and Pavol Demitra upfront, the Blues should have enough firepower to take this series. Oh, did I mention Chris Pronger? He’s a pretty decent defenseman too. If Osgood can keep pace with Nabokov, St. Louis should be able to take the Sharks.
Prediction: St. Louis in six
Reason: Blues’ firepower should be enough to beat Nabokov.
Players to watch: Tkachuk, Patrick Marleau, Weight, Nabokov, Pronger

Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars
It’s offense vs. defense in a classic matchup of two veteran teams. Colorado comes into the post-season without all-time winningest goalie Patrick Roy. While replacement David Aebischer has performed brilliantly in the regular season, he has a lot to prove. Also troubling for the Avalanche is a last minute injury to Paul Kariya. While his loss would be devastating for most teams, Colorado has more than enough firepower to replace him in the short run.

For Dallas however, it is a different story. Mike Modano has been missing in action since day one of this season. The Stars will need him to return to his old self if they have any prayer of taking down the Avalanche. In fact, the offense has been enigmatic all season long. Bill Guerin stands alone as the team’s only consistent scoring threat. Dallas will need more than just him to get by Colorado. From a defensive perspective, Dallas is solid in goal with Marty Turco. While he has yet to win a Cup ring, Turco is a proven starter with some history of playoff success.

Despite the edge in goaltending, Dallas will need to generate some offense if they hope to knock off the Avalanche. If the Stars can get to Colorado’s young goaltender early, they may be able to rattle his confidence. Otherwise, Colorado should be able to take this series.

Prediction: Colorado in six.
Reason: Aebischer should be good enough to support Colorado’s offense.
Players to watch: Joe Sakic, Guerin, Peter Forsberg, Aebischer, Modano

The Top 20
Okay, now that we have that out of the way, here are the 20 picks I would submit in an open format pool. As I stated last week, I’m going to choose players from four teams with a sprinkling of other players to carry me through.

Red Wings: Hull, Lang, Pavel Datsyuk, Mathieu Schneider
Avalanche: Forsberg, Sakic, Milan Hejduk, Alex Tanguay
Lightning: St. Louis, Richards, Stillman, Lecavalier
Devils: Elias, Gomez, Gionta, Scott Niedermayer
Other: Tkachuk, Weight, Sundin, Hossa
Goalie: Brodeur (The Devils are the defending champs for a reason)

Well, that’s my squad. I certainly have injury concerns: Tanguay, Lang and Forsberg aren’t exactly rock solid health wise. My biggest concern however surrounds the fact that I have only selected one Senator. Should Ottawa sneak past the Leafs, it could be potentially devastating. Unfortunately, that series is too close to call and taking a star from each team should minimize the damage with whichever team makes it through. I’m going with what I’ve got.

Good luck in your playoff pools. I’ll be back with more predictions at the beginning of each subsequent playoff round.

Matt Brady is the Fantasy Hockey content manager for FantasyRef.com, a FREE Fantasy Sports site designed by the guys at FantasyAsylum.com. Questions or comments?: slapshotscores@yahoo.com

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